1. The psychologist Nassim Taleb says that no matter how much heuristics and statics you has accumulated in the real world because your brain does not see the statistical when it acts, it acts without anything else, it jumps to the real action.

    On the other hand, it is not the same to predict at natural science than in social science, where if one formulates a rule, it is possible that some people react against it, opposing, if the opposing group. And so therefore the prophecies that are advertised in public have the risk of being affected by popular opinion. This does not happen if the prophecy is kept secret.

     

    El psicólogo Nassim Taleb dice que no importa cuánta heurística de estadística haya acumulada, en el mundo real el cerebro cuando actua no mira la estadística, actúa sin más, salta a la acción real.

    Por otra parte, no es lo mismo predecir en la ciencia natural que en la ciencia social, donde si uno formula una regla, es posible que algunos reaccionen contra ella, oponiéndose, si son del grupo contrario. Y por tanto las profecías que se anuncian en público tienen el riesgo de ser alteradas por la opinión popular. Esto no pasaría si la profecía se guarda en secreto.

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